19.4Causes of Inflation in Various Countries and Regions

turning point. Economic transition is not without its downsides. Many manufacturing-focused countries still rely heavily on their agricultural sectors for their own sustenance and as a core part of international trade. As the agricultural sector faces competition from manufacturing, and as people physically leave rural areas, farming economies can suffer downturns and unpredictability. Finally, countries or individual farmers seeking to make up for their missing labor may encourage migration and/or immigration that may cause political or financial conflict.

19.4 Causes of Inflation in Various Countries and Regions

LEARNING OBJECTIVES By the end of this section, you will be able to:

• Identify the causes and effects of inflation in various economic markets
• Explain the significance of a converging economy

Policymakers of the high-income economies appear to have learned some lessons about fighting inflation. First, whatever happens with aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the short run, countries can use monetary policy to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched in the economy in the medium and long term. Second, there is no long-run gain to letting inflation become established. In fact, allowing inflation to become lasting and persistent poses undesirable risks and tradeoffs. When inflation is high, businesses and individuals need to spend time and effort worrying about protecting themselves against inflation, rather than seeking better ways to serve customers. In short, the high-income economies appear to have both a political consensus to hold inflation low and the economic tools to do so. Despite this, periods of growing inflation can stagnate economic growth and lead to significant political consequences for leaders. In 2022, the U.S. inflation rate reached 9.1%, an unexpected peak that the country hadn't seen since 1981. As is often the case, President Joe Biden was held politically responsible, and negotiated with Congress to pass a massive economic and climate bill titled the Inflation Reduction Act. In a number of middle- and low-income economies around the world, inflation is far from a solved problem. In the early 2000s, Turkey experienced inflation of more than 50% per year for several years and continues to experience high inflation today. Belarus had inflation of about 100% per year from 2000 to 2001. From 2008 to 2010, Venezuela and Myanmar had inflation rates of 20% to 30% per year. Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine all had double-digit inflation for most of the years from 2000 to 2010. Zimbabwe had hyperinflation, with inflation rates that went from more than 100% per year in the mid-2000s to a rate of several million percent in 2008. In these countries, the problem of very high inflation generally arises from huge budget deficits, which the government finances by printing its domestic currency. This is a case of “too much money chasing too few goods.” In the case of Venezuela, beginning in 2016 the government covered its widening deficits by printing ever higher currency notes, with inflation reaching 1,000,000% by 2018. The crisis continues today, with high rates of inflation and high unemployment (over 40%). There is some discussion of dollarization, or a conversion from Venezuelan bolivars to U.S. dollars as the main currency, as a solution to the hyperinflation. Even in 2019, over 50% of transactions in Venezuela were reportedly using U.S. dollars, and banks issued debit cards denominated in U.S. dollars in 2021. A number of countries have managed to sustain solid levels of economic growth for sustained periods of time with inflation levels that would sound high by recent U.S. standards, like 10% to 30% per year. In such economies, the governments index most contracts, wage levels, and interest rates to inflation. Indexing wage contracts and interest rates means that they will increase when inflation increases to retain purchasing power. When wages do not rise as price levels rise, this leads to a decline in the real wage rate and a decrease in the standard of living. Likewise, interest rates that are not indexed mean that money lenders will receive payment in devalued currency and will also lose purchasing power on monies that they lent. It is clearly possible—and perhaps sometimes necessary—for a converging economy (the economy of a country that demonstrates the ability to catch up to the technology leaders) to live with a degree of uncertainty over inflation that would be politically unacceptable in the high-income economies.

19.5 Balance of Trade Concerns

LEARNING OBJECTIVES By the end of this section, you will be able to:

• Explain the meaning of trade balance and its implications for the foreign exchange market
• Analyze concerns over international trade in goods and services and international flows of capital
• Identify and evaluate market-oriented economic reforms

In the 1950s and 1960s, and even into the 1970s, low- and middle-income countries often viewed openness to global flows of goods, services, and financial capital in a negative light. These countries feared that foreign trade would mean both economic losses as high-income trading partners "exploited" their economy and they lost domestic political control to powerful business interests and multinational corporations. These negative feelings about international trade have evolved. After all, the great economic success stories of recent years like Japan, the East Asian Tiger economies, China, and India, all took advantage of opportunities to sell in global markets. European economies thrive with high levels of trade. In the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), 1 the United States, Canada, and Mexico pledged themselves to reduce trade barriers. Many countries have clearly learned that reducing barriers to trade is at least potentially beneficial to the economy. Many smaller world economies have learned an even tougher lesson: if they do not participate actively in world trade, they are unlikely to join the success stories among the converging economies. There are no examples in world history of small economies that remained apart from the global economy but still attained a high standard of living. Although almost every country now claims that its goal is to participate in global trade, the possible negative consequences have remained highly controversial. It is useful to divide these possible negative consequences into issues involving trade of goods and services and issues involving international capital flows. These issues are related, but not the same. An economy may have a high level of trade in goods and services relative to GDP, but if exports and imports are balanced, the net flow of foreign investment in and out of the economy will be zero. Conversely, an economy may have only a moderate level of trade relative to GDP, but find that it has a substantial current account trade imbalance. Thus, it is useful to consider the concerns over international trade of goods and services and international flows of financial capital separately.

Concerns over International Trade in Goods and Services

There is a long list of worries about foreign trade in goods and services: fear of job loss, environmental dangers, unfair labor practices, and many other concerns. We discuss these arguments at some length in the chapter on The International Trade and Capital Flows. Of all of the arguments for limitations on trade, perhaps the most controversial one among economists is the infant industry argument; that is, subsidizing or protecting new industries for a time until they become established. (Globalization and Protectionism explains this concept in more detail.) Countries have used such policies with some success at certain points in time, but in the world as a whole, support for key industries is far more often directed at long-established industries with substantial political power that are suffering losses and laying off workers, rather than potentially vibrant new industries that are not yet established. If government intends to favor certain industries, it needs to do so in a way that is temporary and that orients them toward a future of market competition, rather than a future of unending government subsidies and trade protection.